The DFW market in numbers
Inventory has hit a 20-year high. Median sales prices have softened year-over-year across the metroplex. Days on market are up. Closed sales volumes are down. This is what the data actually shows.
Active listings: a supply shock
Year-over-year increases in active listings are at levels not seen in two decades. Collin County is up 65%. Denton 54%. Dallas 40%. This isn't a slow drift — it's a dam breaking.
The driver is what economists call the "unwind of the lock-in effect." Homeowners with 2–4% mortgages held off selling for three years. Life events — divorce, job changes, growing families, downsizing — can only be deferred for so long. The backlog is hitting the market.
Months of supply: balanced to buyer's
Months of Supply (MOS) is the cleanest read on market balance. Under 3 = seller's market. 4-6 = balanced. Over 6 = buyer's market. DFW's resale market sits at 6.48 MOS — firmly buyer's-market territory for the first time since 2003.
Kaufman (5.8) and Rockwall (5.7) are the deepest into buyer territory. Even Tarrant, the tightest county, sits at 3.0 — a level that gives buyers measurable negotiating room.
Median sales prices are moving down
Year-over-year change in median sales price by DFW county, mid-2025 data.
DFW market indicators by county
Mid-2025 data. Higher MOS, higher inventory growth, and deeper price softening all point to greater buyer leverage.
| County | Months of Supply | Market | Listings YoY | Median Price YoY | Closed Sales YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collin | 3.2 – 4.7 | Balanced→Buyer | +65% | -4.0% to -5.8% | -5.0% |
| Dallas | 3.6 – 4.8 | Balanced→Buyer | +40% | -5.2% | -6.0% |
| Denton | 3.4 – 4.7 | Balanced→Buyer | +54% | -3.4% to -5.0% | -9.0% |
| Kaufman | 5.7 – 5.8 | Buyer's market | +12% | -5.0% to -7.8% | +11.0% |
| Rockwall | 4.9 – 6.5 | Buyer's market | +36% | 0% to -6.5% | -25.0% |
| Tarrant | 3.0 | Balanced | +27% | -1.5% | -10.0% |
Mortgage rate forecast through 2026
Consensus from Fannie Mae, NAR, Morningstar, MBA and Berkshire Hathaway. 30-year fixed mortgage rate (solid blue) and Fed funds rate (dashed amber).
Fannie Mae
30-year fixed near 6.5% by end of 2025, falling to 6.3% end of 2026.
NAR (Lawrence Yun)
H2 2025 average 6.4%, declining to 6.1% in 2026.
Morningstar
Cumulative Fed cuts could drive 30-year mortgage rates to 5.0% by 2028.
66% of homes are now selling below original list
Average closing price has dropped to 94–95% of original asking. Resale homes are sitting on the market for 54 days, new construction 84 days. Nationally, listing cancellations are up 47% — sellers who refuse to adjust are simply pulling their homes.
Translation: this is no longer a market where you bid over asking and waive contingencies. This is a market where you negotiate.
How to negotiate this market →